If USSR won Afghan war?

Actually I remember reading articles in Soldier of Fortune about how by the mid 1980s before Stinger had been introduced that the Muj were losing and the effective use of heliborne troops to cut off and intercept muj groups as well as take out their transport routes had gotten to the point of being effective.

the introduction of Stinger and also other systems less talked about like Milan ATGMs changed the way the Soviet fought... they turned to artillery more and their raids got less discriminant.

I love the irony though... at the time the western press derided Soviet tactics of bombing villages where muj forces were found and could not be dislodged easily.... I see on the program made by Ross Kemp that the west will happily drop heavy bombs on Afghan villages when it suits them too.

There are often comparisons with Vietnam, but that is rubbish. Vietnam was an Asian country first ruled by France, then Japan took it and then France came back. the similarity with Afghanistan was that most villagers didn't know what democracy was and really didn't care much.

the Vietnamese didn't fight for the Soviet Union... they fought to first get the French out, then the Americans and the corrupt south vietnamese.

In afghanistan the Kabul leadership ruled Kabul and most of the country carried on in spite of who was in power.

The Soviets invaded Afghanistan because the CIA moved from Iran to Afghanistan to set up stations there... which the Soviets could not tollerate. Western claims they wanted warm water ports are ridiculous... they would have to invade Pakistan to do that.

Had the US just left Afghanistan the women of Afghanistan would be properly educated, they would be able to have jobs, and vote. There would be functioning infrastructure and a much better standard of living and the country side would be much safer.

A lot of the mineral wealth of the country could probably be exploited now with perhaps a new gold rush and rushes for other valuable minerals and the country would be in a much better position.

Instead all that money and effort was used to buy weapons and ammo and to kill and destroy and several generations of Afghans don't know what peace is.

No Afghan SSR then

There was no interest in incorporating Afghanistan into the Soviet Union... they just wanted a friendly neighbour that would say no to US bases.

It is impossible for anyone to achieve strategic victory in Afghanistan.

In terms of occupation if you want to take their country from them then you are wasting your time... if you go there and build schools and set up water supplies and electricity and don't have a super power and other rich countries undermining your efforts, then you could work wonders in terms of improving things for the people of Afghanistan.

the main problem is that with money comes corruption... all the money the west spent in Afghanistan is ending up in contractors pockets...

Without western and Saudi support the insurgency would have dried up and disappeared.

Very simply, the Soviets didn't need to change any of the locals... most people appreciate running water and electricity.

Roaming bands of rebels need to eat and need a supply of weapons. When there is an invading army the locals opposed to that invading army support the rebels.

When that invading army builds schools and lets the locals teach local language and not impose their own education on the locals, and build wells and hospitals the locals stop helping the rebels.

The Rebels can either leave or use brutality to take from the locals... which usually means the locals start actively supporting against the rebels.

the Taleban was created and supported by Pakistan with Saudi and US money.

After 1991 the Russians had their own problems... they didn't share a border with Afghanistan so had no real reason to interfere...

There were plenty of countries with their hands out for aide... Russia was in enough economic problems and didn't need to give away money for nothing.

The US saved the Afghans from the commies... they never spent a cent in that region on anything that didn't go bang or explode... why not let them show their generosity and help out those they armed for a decade before...

I saw a recent documentary about Afghanistan and they talk about buildings built by the Soviets being popular because the power and utilities still work... they said they would welcome the Soviets back as the billions spent by the US just goes into the pockets of US contractor companies that really don't deliver very much for the Afghan people. Afghan warlords get big flash houses with big fences, but nothing else.