Turkish-Cyprus (Greece) tensions

Well, Egypt is just a puppet and it is a message coming from its masters rather than Egyptians..

GarryB wrote:  back ahmedfire... been a while since you last posted here... hope things are well with you and your family...

Hay Garry , i always missing this forum and always coming back , hope u and all guys here are fine

Greece To Help Tripoli 'Block Turkish Ships' As Libyan War Spills Into Mediterranean

https://oglinks.news/greece/news/help-tripoli-block-turkish-ships-libyan-war-spills-mediterranean

How Turkey Destroyed Its Own Air Force

Fighter pilots aren't cheap. The U.S. Air Force estimates that training a new pilot to fly a plane like the F-35 costs $11 million. And that doesn't count the priceless experience of a veteran pilot who has been flying for years. That's why the U.S. Air Force is willing to offer half-million-dollar bonuses to retain experienced fighter pilots.

So a nation that throws its fighter pilots in jail is not just wasting money, but also an extremely valuable resource. Yet in the name of politics, Turkey's government has purged its air force so badly that it can barely fly its F-16 fighters.

The trouble began on July 15, 2016, when members of Turkey’s military “allegedly” launched a coup to topple the Islamist government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The word allegedly is used for a reason. Despite being pros at overthrowing civilian governments (with four successful coups between 1960 and 1997), the 2016 effort was laughable. Soldiers attempted to isolate Istanbul by erecting roadblocks on the Bosporus Bridge—but only blocked the lanes in one direction. Youtube video showed soldiers with Leopard tanks surrendering to police and civilians. As Erdogan was flying back to Istanbul from vacation, two Turkish Air Force F-16s had his aircraft in their sights—but failed to shoot it down.

And the vaunted Turkish military was supposed to be NATO's Cold War southern bulwark against the Soviets? If so, it's a wonder that the Kremlin never seized the Bosporus.

All of which had skeptics wondering whether the coup was actually a false-flag operation by the Turkish government, aimed at providing (or provoking) an excuse to quash secular Turkish generals and covert followers of exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen. Either way, the coup fizzled in less than an hour, and then Erdogan's government took its revenge.

Numerous senior and field-grade officers were purged. More than 300 F-16 pilots were dismissed. This defanged the Turkish military as a political threat, and strengthened the increasingly authoritarian rule of Erdogan and his neo-Ottoman Justice and Development Party, which has imprisoned many journalists. But it left a gaping question: who would be left to fly Turkey's jet fighters?

With war raging in Syria, and Turkish forces grabbing parts of northern Syria, Turkey's military is keeping busy (including an F-16 that shot down a Russian plane over Syria—the Turkish pilot who did it was one of those purged). It hardly seems a propitious time to decimate your pilot cadre.

The Turkish government has been looking overseas to make up the shortfall. However, the Washington has rebuffed a request to send over U.S. flight instructors, though Turkish pilots are receiving basic flight training in the United States. Turkey has also sought assistance from Pakistan—which also flies F-16s—though training Turkish pilots could violate U.S. arms export rules. In a sign of desperation, "the Turkish government has issued a decree that threatens 330 former pilots with the revocation of their civil pilot license, unless they return to Air Force duty for four years," notes an Atlantic Council report.

"It is unclear how the decision to compel a return to service will impact unit morale," the report added.

Now, enter Russia—a traditional enemy of Turkey for centuries, and one of whose jets was shot down by the Turks over Syria. Yet Turkey is seeking to buy Russia's S-400 long-range anti-aircraft missiles, which only ratchets up tensions between Washington and Ankara over Syria and other issues.

Turkey has also signed an agreement with Franco-Italian missile maker Eurosam to develop a long-range anti-aircraft missile. And why is Turkey suddenly so interested in surface-to-air missiles? "In aftermath of 15 July, with the operations against the Turkish Armed Forces, there was a reduction in the number of F-16 pilots, creating a need to develop our air defense," said Turkish analyst Verda Ozer. "This is the reason for the S-400 purchase."

But even the S-400 wouldn't totally solve Turkey's air defense travails. "Since the Russian S-400 system cannot be integrated into NATO infrastructure, it cannot be used to protect against missile defense," Ozer notes. Hence, Turkey needs two systems: the S-400 to shoot down hostile aircraft, and a Eurosam weapon to intercept ballistic missiles.

Perhaps it would have been easier not to get rid of those F-16 pilots.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-turkey-destroyed-its-own-air-force-24942

GarryB wrote:First of all... national interest?

Second, if you have people supporting a coup to get rid of you then you have to deal to them... and people in the military doubly so... Look at what happened in America... in Venezuela... Maduro bought nice new weapons and looked after his military and they backed him when the US tried to overthrow him in a coup... In Bolivia Morales got pushed by his military and replaced... the deciding factor in both cases was the military... if there were any anti Erdogan people in the Turkish military they would be used by the US via the CIA to try again... very dangerous to keep those people around.

Third... it is pretty clear that the US directly supported the coup attempt, or at least Erdogan clearly believes this...

Fourth, they bought S-400 because Patriot is much more expensive and rather less effective... the S-400 can shoot down ballistic targets travelling at 4.8km/s which is better than THAAD or any European SAMs, and of course it can be integrated into NATO air defence networks... they also bought S-400 because Obama refused to sell their number one NATO ally Patriot missile systems.

Fifth... Russia traditional enemy of Turkey for centuries... a bit like Britain and France, Britain and Germany, Britain and most European countries, Britain and its former colony the US, Japan and Europe, Japan and the US, the US and everyone... but now they all seem to be best buddies...

The US says it all their time, they don't have friends, they have interests... which their friends understand by not coming between the US and her interests... if you can do that you can claim to have a special relationship and survive on the table scraps...

BTW with good relations with Russia and being part of NATO why does Turkey even need and air force?

There is only Israel and they have shown they wont enter Syrian airspace because Syria has S-300s.... the Russians watch everything the Israelis do with their own S-400 and S-300V4 systems in the area, so when an Israeli delegation goes to Moscow with evidence they were not at fault when a Syrian Air Defence Unit accidentally shoots down a Russian plane the Russians can tell the Israelis exactly what happened and why Israel was to blame, with the solution being to give the Syrians an air picture comparable to what the Russian forces there enjoyed.... essentially Israel shooting itself in the head.

Garry ,US never planned a coup against erdogan , the guy is hosting one of the biggest US bases allover the world and he take down a russian aircraft for the US eyes , he did a chemical attack by his rebels so that US army can bomb syrian army .

Turkey is a country of coups through history even since ottoman empire , erdogan fired about 130,000 between police &civil jobs and military members which is insane , how come all these guys are anti regime and did he has evidences against them all ? ,in any country you will find people who have opinions that classified as anti regimes , it doesn't mean that we have to fire all these people , but this idiot guy is using the failed coup to elliminate the whole opposition .

He is also helping the Russians pump gas into Europe, and there are quite a few other things he is doing they don't like either... they are not handing over the guy he blames for the coup attempt... which makes pretty clear who they are backing.

Actually Europe needs the gas too , they are opposing the US sanctions against the russian  gas pipeline to EU which means that turkey has EU on her back and turkey has more benefits to do that .

The US also overthrew the leader of the Ukraine who was actually pro west, but not blindly to the point of destroying his own country... so they replaced him.

For years Saddam was their best buddy... supplying oil to the US during the 70s and of course spending the 80s fighting Iran he was a hero...

You could tell simply by the language from the western media that he is not their guy and it is pretty clear the US wants him gone...

Well in international affairs even the ally shouldn't follow every step of his friend or follower , there a space always to move for the own affairs for some benefits ,as example egypt and KSA are very close but in 2016 ARAMCO stopped the oil supplies to egypt because egypt refused to send her army to yemen or to send weapons to rebels in syria but egypt said ok i'll go to iraq for oil then KSA reconsidered that and supplies came again .

Saddam was exporting oil because he will gain money from that , US is the biggest economy and they are consuming a lot of oil along with EU and china so exporting oil to the west doesn't mean by anyway that the guy is ally to them in a political view ,he was exporting to everyone ,it doesn't mean he is ally to everyone , economic talks here , Saddam invaded kuawit and the whole world was against that including arabs , of course US took the chance to be in that area that full of oil .

US doesn't have a button for everything and as putin said before "CIA doesn't know everything and they shouldn't" , we souldn't neglect the circumstances that circled these events , Mubarak had a good relations with russians and US but he was considered as a pro west ,i don't know why but US during egypt's revolution asked him to leave now! so US is flexible with some events , she will pretend to support the people when she knows it's impossile to stop them even if the ruler was pro US .

You could tell simply by the language from the western media that he is not their guy and it is pretty clear the US wants him gone...

Media talk too much everywhere , erdogan had used to insult everyone so the media was replying , this all is a short events but in a long view US see turkey as an anti russian base in a sensitive area and this was cystal clear when turkey shoot down a russian aircaft , NATO consider Russia as the first enemy and of course turkey is a NATO member so in a long view turkey is a russian enemy as it was through history.

Issues between US and turkey are all about kurds but turkey still supplying the rebels in syria with weapons which might be used against russian soldiers there .

Issues now rises between EU and turkey after the turkish deal with libya and the opposition of erdogan to cyprus&Egypt and israel to export gas to EU , it's very normal for EU to be against that step because they need more gas ,so this all are short ploitical conflicts which will never change the long view fact that turkey is a NATO member which is against russia .

Well, you could look at it in a lot of different ways... giving them more free time to plot and plan might be a bad thing, but then removing their income and positions of power will also weaken their ability to remove him from power... the huge irony is that the US seems very keen on coups despite them being the opposite of democracy... it is considered right or wrong depending on the situation...

Most of people in turkey now are opposite to regime and specially erdogan , they are watching the lira going down and their army going for unnecessary conflicts , one man controlling everything and foreign affairs are the worst since 30 years ,check the last elections and how erdogan party lost then he repeated the elections and he lost again with bigger gap between the winner from opposition .

Erdogan has definitely some backfired policies,but to call him a Westerner collaborator requires two blind folded eyes.

Turkish incursion in Syria by latest three operations literally blown US sponsored seperatist kurdish state into pieces. Even there happened actual risk of US/Turkish military confrontation. US unwillingly fell back. It was Turkish move that opened US bases' doors to Russian operators. Could anybody imagine russian soldiers entering in a recently abandoned US base and taking pictures of leftovers? Including military instruction handbooks?

Indeed, Turkey is a NATO ally and it is highly unwise to lose Turkey from a NATO perspective. But this does not mean Turkey is a full speed ally like UK or Israel or other fuckface Gulf states. Turkey is definitely independent.

@ahmedfire, you are right in your last paragraph. Government party, ie Ak party loses popularity due to recent political failures. And I believe the biggest is yet to come. But it wont be a failure in terms of national interest, it will be a shocking development that a supposedly Islamist government secretly/openly shaking hands with Israel.

In fact, it is and was the wise thing to do, but if Islamist voters see that happening, I dont know what to follow. That may not happen as well.

All in all, in years to come, I have a feeling that US will experience a colossal and epic failure in this region and it will never fully recover.

US doen't care alot now about kurds , actually US has low interests in sending troops allover the world ,Trump said it and he doesn't care so much because he is not a politician, but for the S-400 US put sanctions on turkey because they do care more about the staregic turkey role as anti russian base .

Could anybody imagine russian soldiers entering in a recently abandoned US base and taking pictures of leftovers? Including military instruction handbooks?

What bases ? in Menbij ? it's already left by US forces ,nothing important at all.

@ahmedfire, check youtube its all filled with such videos.

What you call as "nothing important" is for some time a place inhabited by US forces for some reason is now inhabited by Russians.

I mean, this is not something happens every day, or every week, or every year. It happens when reality in the field is considerably changed, and for this specific case, by Turkey.

Trump may or may not like to have soldiers around but Pentagon definitely likes to and they were quite nervous about that withdrawal. They clearly expressed their view about this issue. I rather suspect such belittling is a result of biased approach.

Even leave that aside, Turkish Stream alone is sufficient to shake entire transanlantic decision makers regarding Turkey.

George Friedman, former CIA director predicts that neither Russia nor US will have a leverage to undermine Turkey's impending rise. Although his book "The Next 100 Years" ends with a US victory over Turkey, which is understandable since the book is written by a US citizen, it clearly describes Turkey's capabilities and their reach, by extensive geostrategic reasoning.

Of course, such intelligence prerequisite to understand events to unfold in years to come makes some artificial countries' ability to adapt and follow up how big the things are, irrelevant.

Yes nothing important because it was US decision to withdraw , they will not leave secrets for the russuians !! it's just a syrian lands !

George Friedman, former CIA director predicts that neither Russia nor US will have a leverage to undermine Turkey's impending rise. Although his book "The Next 100 Years" ends with a US victory over Turkey, which is understandable since the book is written by a US citizen, it clearly describes Turkey's capabilities and their reach, by extensive geostrategic reasoning.

What conflict that will leads a US victory ?!! there is no any comaprision between the economic nor the military power between both countries !

US has a very big base in turkey ,EU has more bases there, there are no any type of conflicts that could happen as the current situation is existing ! plus turkey can never face US in a conflict "armed or even economic" !

You didnt read the book or its abstract did you?

French carrier sailing off Cyprus. Show of force against Turkey. However its is well within range of russian and Turkish missiles.could be sunk easily if tensions increase too much.

https://cyprus-mail.com/2020/02/17/french-defence-minister-due-in-cyprus-as-joint-exercises-start/

French Rafale M from the french carrier "attacked" Cyprus in an exercice to test Cyprus air defences.

Cyprus operates Tor and buk m1-2.

Isos wrote:French carrier sailing off Cyprus. Show of force against Turkey. However its is well within range of russian and Turkish missiles.could be sunk easily if tensions increase too much.

Why would Russia attack a french carrier ?  the tensions are only between Turkey and France and if the tensions raised to a war level ,this carrier will not be in the range of turkish missiles , also hitting a carrier is a high level act of war which wll leads to a big counter attack from France .

Why would Russia attack a french carrier ?  the tensions are only between Turkey and France and if the tensions raised to a war level ,this carrier will not be in the range of turkish missiles , also hitting a carrier is a high level act of war which wll leads to a big counter attack from France .

You never know what can happen there. Last time US/UK/FR attacked SAA russians were flying their su-34 with anti ship missiles. All happened in matters of 2 days.

If the carrier is sunk, France couldn't do much unless they use nuclear missiles.

Ι cant understand why Russia is considered on Turkey's side in Cyprus dispute

George1 wrote:Ι cant understand why Russia is considered on Turkey's side in Cyprus dispute

I didn't develop my original post. I don't mean the carrier is in danger of russian missiles over Cyprus disputs but because the location is btw Cyprus (tensions with turkey) and Syria (tensions with russian over syrian war).

So there are two risk for the carrier :

A) start of a conflict with Turkey and turks use their f-16 with harpoons and their frigates and subs against the carrier.

B) Some accidents in syria oblige the russians to answer against Nato and the carrier would be a valuable target.

Like I said such things now happen in matter of hours or days. Sending a carrier there is a stupid military decision. West of Cyrpus it would be more safe and with the same impact.

The more I think about it, the more I think that Turkish president prick Turdogan needs to be taken out.
He's causing mayhem in Syria, nr Greece, with Russia, with Libya. He sees himself as some sort of Ottoman sultan. But in reality he's despised by East AND West. He's despised by many Turks. And thats not even including the massive part of Turkey thats actually Kurdish not Turkish. Frankly he's just a kebab eating version of Hitler in my book. Infact, I suspect he shot down that Russian jet just to pretend to his sycophants that he's "Billy Big Bollocks". If I was Putin, I'd be seriously thinking about how to carve Turkey up before he gets even more too big for his boots.

What do people here think Russia has got planned for Turdogan/Turkey in the short to long term?

What do people here think Russia has got planned for Turdogan/Turkey in the short to long term?

Nothing on the long term. He is too much unprevisible to make plan with him. Just today he beged US to send patriots against russians.

They will use him now that he is a NATO enemy as long as they can to hurt nato and sell weapons to him.

Russians are aware that Turkey will go back in western harms one day or another when Erdogan is not at power anymore.

Isos wrote:

What do people here think Russia has got planned for Turdogan/Turkey in the short to long term?

Nothing on the long term. He is too much unprevisible to make plan with him. Just today he beged US to send patriots against russians.

They will use him now that he is a NATO enemy as long as they can to hurt nato and sell weapons to him.

Russians are aware that Turkey will go back in western harms one day or another when Erdogan is not at power anymore.

So maybe the solution is to set up a Kurdistan in Turkish territory but not Syrian terrority.
Also Turkey could possibly be split into 3 or so with some work ie promoting a credible opposition. It would stop all the "I am the new Ottoman ruler" bullshit from any Turdogan successor. Clearly Erdogan is hugely untrustworthy, given that literally everyone despises him - America, Russia, Europe, the M East.

Russia doesn't give a fuck about who rules Turkey as long as they don't close or threaten russian ships in the Bosphorus strait.

Turkey hasn't got the military, economical or political power to face Russia. No matter what Erdogan pretends. He has 200 f16, few corvettes and subs and no air defence system. How could he face su57, tupolevs, kalibr and other cruise missiles, s-400, economical pressure from russia ?

The big issue is in the mediteranean with Greece, Cyprus and Egypt. And that's EU's problem.