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    Iraq internal situation & politics

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    mutantsushi


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    Post  mutantsushi Fri May 02, 2014 4:05 am

    Since this seems to be the most active thread on Iraq,
    I had a question for Sheytan who seems most well informed there...

    Could you give a summary of the political situation there, apart from the armed conflict with jihadis?
    I recall 1-2 years ago Muqtada al Sadr announced he was withdrawing from politics,
    having up to that point provided some political resistance to Maliki from the Shia side,
    sympathisizing with Sunni and Kurds to some extent, what has happened to him?,
    and what does the political situation there look like otherwise?
    I was aware of the reorganization of the northern provinces to have "Assyrian" regions, etc,
    but I'm sure you could fill in the details alot more...
    General economic developments would also be interesting, is there much cooperative development with Iran for instance?
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    Post  sheytanelkebir Fri May 02, 2014 11:41 am

    mutantsushi wrote:Since this seems to be the most active thread on Iraq,
    I had a question for Sheytan who seems most well informed there...

    Could you give a summary of the political situation there, apart from the armed conflict with jihadis?
    I recall 1-2 years ago Muqtada al Sadr announced he was withdrawing from politics,
    having up to that point provided some political resistance to Maliki from the Shia side,
    sympathisizing with Sunni and Kurds to some extent, what has happened to him?,
    and what does the political situation there look like otherwise?
    I was aware of the reorganization of the northern provinces to have "Assyrian" regions, etc,
    but I'm sure you could fill in the details alot more...
    General economic developments would also be interesting, is there much cooperative development with Iran for instance?

    I recommend reading the Iraqi subforum on skyscrapercity.
    http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2427

    if you join skyscrapercity, you can view the various politics and anti-terror operations threads on this subforum there. http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2763
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    Post  sheytanelkebir Thu May 28, 2015 11:04 am

    the united states has contradictory aims in this war.

    It has multiple "allies" all with contradictory visions of what outcome they seek.

    Israel wants all the non-jews to lose... the more death and destruction outside israel, the less threat to israel...

    The GCC countries seek to overthrow the Syrian regime at all costs and replace it with a wahabi theocracy.

    Turkey is quietly seeking to become the sultan of the new caliphate.

    Some people in the US want to sign the nuclear deal with Iran.

    Other people in the US are opposed to the nuclear deal with Iran.

    Some in the US want to maintain Iraq's territorial integrity and government.

    Others in the US support Kurdistan and its lobbies.

    all of that mixed together creates the current US policy of effectively "let them fight forever" quite simiar to US policy from the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.

    Which is why Iraq's only chance of "breaking the deadlock" is to join the SCO and have Russian and Chinese Military forces assist Iraq directly. As a member of the SCO Iraq is "made" ... they will be untouchable by the allies of the US.

    However the US is beating the Iraqis into staying in Line... thus far. We would need a major "collapse" like ISIS entering baghdad for the government to seek such a solution.
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    Post  sheytanelkebir Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:44 pm

    At the UN Obama was filmed after the meetings having a "private chat" with Iraqi PM Haider Abadi...

    Iraq internal situation & politics 12049376_679361435496626_7449714993580829144_n



    So now Obama wants to talk to the Iraqis... how droll.
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    Post  par far Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:25 pm

    sheytanelkebir wrote:At the UN Obama was filmed after the meetings having a "private chat" with Iraqi PM Haider Abadi...

    Iraq internal situation & politics 12049376_679361435496626_7449714993580829144_n



    So now Obama wants to talk to the Iraqis... how droll.


    The asshole Obama is trying to pressure him.
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    Post  sheytanelkebir Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:29 pm

    Obama: We wont send the rest of your F16s if you collaborate with Russia
    Abadi: Its ok our boys are already training on MiG35s
    Obama: F*** You and F*** Mig!
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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:33 pm

    Sheytan, you should certainly spend more time on this forum. 100%.

    You contributed a lot to mp.net. Now it's down with the best part of it (photos and videos) and it's replacement is some shitty forum. Here, you're welcome.
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    Post  sheytanelkebir Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:35 pm

    thanks walther. Just so busy with work and stuff that I rarely get time to post... even though there's loads of news.
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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:39 pm

    Q:

    Why are there so many ex-Saddam officers in IS? Does the world offer too few ideologies that out of all possibilities they choose Jihadi Islamism? Couldn't they choose liberal democracy or even communism instead?
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    Post  sheytanelkebir Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:51 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Q:

    Why are there so many ex-Saddam officers in IS? Does the world offer too few ideologies that out of all possibilities they choose Jihadi Islamism? Couldn't they choose liberal democracy or even communism instead?

    This question is interesting.

    It all started in 1991 just after the Gulf War Saddam recoiled from the double whammy of the "arab world" fighting against Iraq in the Gulf War as well as the Southern Iraqi Shia uprising against his regime...

    His solution?

    Abandon "Pan Arabism" - since the arabs betrayed him
    Abandon "Iraqi Nationalism" - Since the Shias betrayed him

    The only thing left was "Sunni Islam".

    Hence the birth of the "Faith Campaign" which raged throughout the 1990s until 2003.

    Initially people thought it was a "superficial" campaign by Saddam... build mosques, add "allah akbar" to the flag, ban Bars (but not alcohol!) and impose death sentence on prostitution...

    But it seems that whether it was planned, or by accident... a great number of Saddam's officers were drawn into this islamism... and after the fall of the regime in 2003 it was an easy "leap of faith" for them to get into wahhabism... Something that would have been "unthinkable" in the 1970s or 1980s.
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    Post  George1 Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:58 pm

    sheytanelkebir wrote:
    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Q:

    Why are there so many ex-Saddam officers in IS? Does the world offer too few ideologies that out of all possibilities they choose Jihadi Islamism? Couldn't they choose liberal democracy or even communism instead?

    This question is interesting.

    It all started in 1991 just after the Gulf War Saddam recoiled from the double whammy of the "arab world" fighting against Iraq in the Gulf War as well as the Southern Iraqi Shia uprising against his regime...

    His solution?

    Abandon "Pan Arabism" - since the arabs betrayed him
    Abandon "Iraqi Nationalism" - Since the Shias betrayed him

    The only thing left was "Sunni Islam".

    Hence the birth of the "Faith Campaign" which raged throughout the 1990s until 2003.

    Initially people thought it was a "superficial" campaign by Saddam... build mosques, add "allah akbar" to the flag, ban Bars (but not alcohol!) and impose death sentence on prostitution...

    But it seems that whether it was planned, or by accident... a great number of Saddam's officers were drawn into this islamism... and after the fall of the regime in 2003 it was an easy "leap of faith" for them to get into wahhabism... Something that would have been "unthinkable" in the 1970s or 1980s.

    do u think that the country is going to be partitioned?
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    Post  sheytanelkebir Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:20 pm

    George1 wrote:

    do u think that the country is going to be partitioned?

    There will be one of 4 possible scenarios.

    1- Iraq somehow stays as one country... possible but unlikely in the long run.

    2- Iraq with allies manages to destroy ISIS and retakes the territory... all the "ISIS" citizens would escape to Turkey as refugees essentially reducing Iraq's Sunni minority to a tiny figure... Then the former "sunni" areas would be split between the "shia" and "kurdish" states... a "2 state solution" - Would be fought tooth and nail by Turkey and the Gulf Arabs.

    3- It is possible that ISIS is defeated and afterwards Iraq with Russia create a new "christian / yazidi / shia turkmen" state out of parts of Mosul and Kirkuk. That would create a "3 state" solution in which the Christians and Yazidis would finally have a "safe state" to rebuild their lives. - This would be fought tooth and nail by the Kurds and Sunni states however.

    4- ISIS is overthrown within its own organisation by a Sunni Arab uprising against it. Then a "3 state" solution would happen whereby the Sunni Arab populace is not entirely displaced but create a "wahabi state" jostled between Iraq - Syria and Kurdistan. - The Iranians and Iraqis would not like this due to the inherent expansionism of sunni Islam... the small "statelet" would be considered by Sunnis as simply the first "stepping stone" to "regaining Iraq".


    All in all a recipe for many more years of war.
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    Post  George1 Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:22 pm

    sheytanelkebir wrote:

    His solution?

    Abandon "Pan Arabism" - since the arabs betrayed him
    Abandon "Iraqi Nationalism" - Since the Shias betrayed him

    The only thing left was "Sunni Islam".


    but this was also against his party ideology "Ba'athism" which advocates secularism and is against fundamentalism
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    Post  sheytanelkebir Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:28 pm

    George1 wrote:
    sheytanelkebir wrote:

    His solution?

    Abandon "Pan Arabism" - since the arabs betrayed him
    Abandon "Iraqi Nationalism" - Since the Shias betrayed him

    The only thing left was "Sunni Islam".


    but this was also against his party ideology "Ba'athism" which advocates secularism and is against fundamentalism

    baathism was essentially "dead" after 1991... it was still there "officially" (like PRC is "communist" officially!), but essentially Iraq after 1991 was completely detached from the "origins" of Pan Arabism... and in fact there was a new party after 1991 called "friends of saddam" or "friends of the leader" which was the essential "replacement" for the old baath party. Sad to say that most of the "western media" simply never ever pick up on all these changes that happened in Iraq!!

    But then again this same media talks about "thousands of humvees and hundreds of abrams" that ISIS captured (utter nonsense) whilst never mentioning the "Mishraq sulfhur plant" in Mosul which was renovated and expanded by a US contractor in 2013-2014... just in time for ISIS to take over and use it as their main supply of raw materials for their war effort.

    http://www.devcousa.com/news/major-project-award-mishraq-sulfur-purification-facility

    http://www.devcousa.com/experience/mishraq

    Iraq internal situation & politics Plant_Birds_Eye_3-348080-edited


    in fact the "final deliveries" were on the 29th May 2014...
    http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2014/05/29/devco-ships-53m-kit-to-sulfur-mine/

    and lo and behold... 10 days later the sunni arab and kurdish soldiers in mosul all abandon positions and switch sides as ISIS takes over.

    I'm sure they are making good use out of the 1M tonnes of Sulfur and ALum production per year... as can be seen by the level of explosions happening all over the region.

    But lets not mention any of this in the media.
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:50 pm

    Sheytan you crack me up man. Thank you for the insight.
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    Post  zg18 Thu Oct 01, 2015 8:01 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:Sheytan you crack me up man. Thank you for the insight.

    Yeah , really interesting.

    @sheytanelkebir thumbsup


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    Post  KoTeMoRe Thu Oct 01, 2015 8:08 pm

    sheytanelkebir wrote:
    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Q:

    Why are there so many ex-Saddam officers in IS? Does the world offer too few ideologies that out of all possibilities they choose Jihadi Islamism? Couldn't they choose liberal democracy or even communism instead?

    This question is interesting.

    It all started in 1991 just after the Gulf War Saddam recoiled from the double whammy of the "arab world" fighting against Iraq in the Gulf War as well as the Southern Iraqi Shia uprising against his regime...

    His solution?

    Abandon "Pan Arabism" - since the arabs betrayed him
    Abandon "Iraqi Nationalism" - Since the Shias betrayed him

    The only thing left was "Sunni Islam".

    Hence the birth of the "Faith Campaign" which raged throughout the 1990s until 2003.

    Initially people thought it was a "superficial" campaign by Saddam... build mosques, add "allah akbar" to the flag, ban Bars (but not alcohol!) and impose death sentence on prostitution...

    But it seems that whether it was planned, or by accident... a great number of Saddam's officers were drawn into this islamism... and after the fall of the regime in 2003 it was an easy "leap of faith" for them to get into wahhabism... Something that would have been "unthinkable" in the 1970s or 1980s.
    Sound very legit actually. Truisms in any religion lead to a different grade of totalitarianism. So I can see how easy for violent men it was to transit from secular power to religious control.
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    Post  mack8 Thu Oct 01, 2015 8:48 pm

    sheytanelkebir wrote:
    George1 wrote:
    sheytanelkebir wrote:

    His solution?

    Abandon "Pan Arabism" - since the arabs betrayed him
    Abandon "Iraqi Nationalism" - Since the Shias betrayed him

    The only thing left was "Sunni Islam".


    but this was also against his party ideology "Ba'athism" which advocates secularism and is against fundamentalism

    baathism was essentially "dead" after 1991... it was still there "officially" (like PRC is "communist" officially!), but essentially Iraq after 1991 was completely detached from the "origins" of Pan Arabism... and in fact there was a new party after 1991 called "friends of saddam" or "friends of the leader" which was the essential "replacement" for the old baath party. Sad to say that most of the "western media" simply never ever pick up on all these changes that happened in Iraq!!

    But then again this same media talks about "thousands of humvees and hundreds of abrams" that ISIS captured (utter nonsense) whilst never mentioning the "Mishraq sulfhur plant" in Mosul which was renovated and expanded by a US contractor in 2013-2014... just in time for ISIS to take over and use it as their main supply of raw materials for their war effort.

    http://www.devcousa.com/news/major-project-award-mishraq-sulfur-purification-facility

    http://www.devcousa.com/experience/mishraq

    Iraq internal situation & politics Plant_Birds_Eye_3-348080-edited


    in fact the "final deliveries" were on the 29th May 2014...
    http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2014/05/29/devco-ships-53m-kit-to-sulfur-mine/

    and lo and behold... 10 days later the sunni arab and kurdish soldiers in mosul all abandon positions and switch sides as ISIS takes over.

    I'm sure they are making good use out of the 1M tonnes of Sulfur and ALum production per year... as can be seen by the level of explosions happening all over the region.

    But lets not mention any of this in the media.

    The iraqi airforce or army aviation didn't managed to destroy it yet Sheytan? I would have thought it would be a prime target.
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    Post  sheytanelkebir Thu Oct 01, 2015 9:22 pm

    mack8 wrote:
    sheytanelkebir wrote:
    George1 wrote:
    sheytanelkebir wrote:

    His solution?

    Abandon "Pan Arabism" - since the arabs betrayed him
    Abandon "Iraqi Nationalism" - Since the Shias betrayed him

    The only thing left was "Sunni Islam".


    but this was also against his party ideology "Ba'athism" which advocates secularism and is against fundamentalism

    baathism was essentially "dead" after 1991... it was still there "officially" (like PRC is "communist" officially!), but essentially Iraq after 1991 was completely detached from the "origins" of Pan Arabism... and in fact there was a new party after 1991 called "friends of saddam" or "friends of the leader" which was the essential "replacement" for the old baath party. Sad to say that most of the "western media" simply never ever pick up on all these changes that happened in Iraq!!

    But then again this same media talks about "thousands of humvees and hundreds of abrams" that ISIS captured (utter nonsense) whilst never mentioning the "Mishraq sulfhur plant" in Mosul which was renovated and expanded by a US contractor in 2013-2014... just in time for ISIS to take over and use it as their main supply of raw materials for their war effort.

    http://www.devcousa.com/news/major-project-award-mishraq-sulfur-purification-facility

    http://www.devcousa.com/experience/mishraq

    Iraq internal situation & politics Plant_Birds_Eye_3-348080-edited


    in fact the "final deliveries" were on the 29th May 2014...
    http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2014/05/29/devco-ships-53m-kit-to-sulfur-mine/

    and lo and behold... 10 days later the sunni arab and kurdish soldiers in mosul all abandon positions and switch sides as ISIS takes over.

    I'm sure they are making good use out of the 1M tonnes of Sulfur and ALum production per year... as can be seen by the level of explosions happening all over the region.

    But lets not mention any of this in the media.

    The iraqi airforce or army aviation didn't managed to destroy it yet Sheytan? I would have thought it would be a prime target.

    Nope.... Not quite sure why. It is possible that the areas there are zones reserved for the coalition and thus Iraqis are not allowed to fly there (USA decides zones... Predictably) to minimise confusion and "collateral damage".

    Interestingly isis prefers to have their open and vulnerable positions in those zones... Although there are examples when their vbied assembly plants are spectacularly blown up by aircraft.
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    Post  mack8 Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:47 am

    Maybe the events will play so that the american scums are "invited" out and russian and perhaps iranian air attacks extend against the ISIL rats in Iraq too, then  that factory will be finally blown to pieces.

    Speaking of the vbied plants, are those spectacular explosions real or just for show... i would not be surprised in the least if the latter.
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    Post  sheytanelkebir Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:48 am

    those explosions are very real... ISIS "assembly plants" would have several dozen VBIEDs being prepared at any one time... and they have 5-6 assembly plants running non stop since they run dozens of VBIEDs daily.

    So 2 of their plants were destroyed spectacularly... one by Iraqi Mi28Ne and one by RAF tornados.

    But that only "slows them down" for a few weeks at most. they readily expect to "lose" many of their assembly plants and have in place alternatives. They aren't dumb and certainly don't lack planning.

    But taking out the Sulfur plant and mine in Mishraq would deal them a "true blow" since its the main source of raw materials for their explosives. And it churns out 1 MILLION TONNES of sulfur annually! its a HUGE plant and is a key component of their war.
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    Post  Solncepek Wed Nov 11, 2015 7:00 pm

    George Herbert Walker Bush Reveals Cheney Considered Using Nuclear Weapons Against Iraq

    George Bush Sr book reveals a more dangerous Dick Cheney than anyone knew

    Destiny and Power shows a VP with more authority than almost all his predecessors, making plain Bush Jr’s administration could have been even worse

    Julian Borger, Diplomatic editor
    The Guardian, Thursday 5 November 2015

    EXCERPT...

    This unilateralist inclination was clearly the younger Bush’s choice. It was how he intended from the outset to make his foreign policy distinctive from his father’s. And it was this characteristic that made for such a dangerously volatile and over-reaching US response when the 9/11 attacks came.

    There is no doubt that Cheney and Rumsfeld were given more licence and authority than almost all their predecessors once the “war on terror” began. Cheney was certainly the most powerful vice-president of modern times, with a large and assertive staff, something that Bush Sr draws particular attention to.

    Cheney and Rumsfeld used their enhanced power to poison the flow of information to the president’s desk about Iraq and its supposed weapons of mass destruction. The vice-president even made repeated trips to CIA headquarters in Langley to bully analysts into producing more hawkish reports, while Rumsfeld’s Pentagon sucked up highly dubious “evidence” from Iraqi exiles and ideological freelancers. But, as even as the ever-forgiving father admits in Meacham’s book, it was President Bush who allowed Cheney to grow his own empire.

    SNIP...

    Perhaps the most alarming revelation to emerge from the new Bush biography is the elder man’s recollection that while Cheney had been his defence secretary, he had commissioned a study on how many tactical nuclear weapons would be needed to eliminate a division of Saddam Hussein’s Republican Guard.

    Apparently the answer was 17, though a more profound conclusion is that Cheney was a more dangerous figure than anyone knew. It adds weight to reporting by Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker that Cheney also contemplated the use of low-yield nuclear bunker-busters against Iran’s underground uranium enrichment facilities. The more we hear about the George W Bush administration, the clearer it becomes that the global damage it wrought could have been even worse.

    SOURCE: http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/nov/05/george-bush-sr-book-reveals-a-more-dangerous-dick-cheney-than-anyone-knew
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    Post  Kimppis Sat Nov 21, 2015 4:51 pm

    Have you guys ever seen any articles, pics, etc. about the Gulf War and the invasion of 2003 from the Iraqi point of view? Now that I think about it, I have never seen a single photo that was taken by Saddam's conventional forces.

    Here's absolutely nothing: https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/2ilhlt/request_footage_of_the_2003_invasion_of_iraq_from/
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    Post  par far Sat Nov 21, 2015 7:13 pm

    A good article on middle east.

    http://southfront.org/syria-a-game-by-russias-rules/


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    Post  George1 Mon Nov 23, 2015 8:30 am

    Unfortunately we have clashes between Shiite fighters and Kurds also..

    Hundreds Recruited to Shiite Militia Set to Fight Against Kurds in Iraq

    Iraqi anti-ISIL Shiite militia and Kurdish forces have been in constant confrontation. This month, the stand-off turned violent. Local media reports that Shiite Kurds are taking part in the Shiite militia in this sharp conflict among anti-Jihadi ranks.

    The Iran-backed Hashd al-Shaabi Shiite militia has recruited some 5,000 fighters in its ranks in recent months, including approximately 1,800 Shiite Kurds, who may take part in clashes with mainly Sunni Kurdish forces of Peshmerga, an anonymous local military official told the Kurdish Rudaw news outlet.

    “They have an entire brigade for the Kurdish recruits in Khanaqeen, fully armed and funded,” he was quoted as saying by Rudaw. “Even the commander of the brigade is a Shiite Kurd.”

    Intermittent clashes between the Popular Mobilization Units, as Hashd al-Shaabi’s name is translated, and the Peshmerga flared up on November 12 at a Kurdish checkpoint in Tuz Khurmatu, a multi-ethnic town lying on the main highway between Baghdad and Kirkuk. The clashes lasted for at least three days and reportedly claimed lives of 21 persons on both sides, including civilians, and multiple arrests. The stand-off is complicated by active engagement of civilians.

    “Violence in Khurmatu has resulted in the death and wounding of 21 people, including seven Kurds and others from Arabs and Turkmens of the city,” Jabar Yawar, chief of staff of the Peshmerga ministry, told Rudaw last week.

    Analysts point to the rivalry over control of territories across Iraq and historical Sunni-Shiite contradictions as possible reasons for violent confrontation. While Peshmerga represents mostly Sunni Kurds, Hashd al-Shaabi recruits Arabs, Turkmens and Shiite Kurds to its ranks.

    The town of Tuz Khurmatu’s disputed status was to be decided after a referendum, being continuously postponed since 2007. Earlier this fall, the Peshmerga forces and Shiite militias entered the city to take it under joint control during an ISIL offensive west of Kirkuk.

    Local Islamic clergy has raised its voices to urge Peshmerga and Hashd al-Shaabi to stop the clashes and ease tensions and concentrate on fighting the common enemy, ISIL, instead.

    “All hands should join and unite their energy to fight the real terrorists and the war should not be diverted from its course,” a major Shiite cleric Abdul-Mahdi said in a sermon in Karbala, as cited by Rudaw.

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/military/20151123/1030557592/shiite-militia-vs-peshmerga.html#ixzz3sIVgRAx2

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